January 2023 Update
The telltale sign gives us confidence in our short term bullish thesis
Reinvestment flows worked in reverse this year and paired with tax loss selling flows can be very significant into the EOY and BOY. That being said, the market handled it very well given the vol compression flows as we’ve discussed previously. Surprisingly, the market was stronger and more stable than we thought. Going into February, the fed event vol (feb1st) and NFP vol (feb3rd) are sitting significantly higher than the vol around them. These should serve as another form of supportive flows as we approach those dates.
The mother of all trendlines that everybody is watching
Technically speaking, as long as we hold above the 200 day moving average (DMA) and the trendline of lower highs dating back from ATH last January, many quantitative strategies will stay in to push the market higher. Cautious if we drop below the 200DMA.
Inflation is apparently transitory, once again
An impending pause has been communicated by the fed at about 5% and has gotten more affirmation from Fed Brainard. She has very clearly mentioned that her belief was that inflation was transitory in nature. Sounds very familiar. The last time they said that, inflation was significantly worse and longer lived than expected. But more on this later. For the time being, the feds want to pause and look around to see if they overreacted. That’s pretty bullish for liquidity in the context of expectations.
Around the globe
China estimates that 80-85% of the people has gotten covid, and are reaching some sort of immunity. The reopening and stimulus from the PBOC (second largest source of liquidity in the world) will be very positive for growth.
Europe was very worried going into the winter that they would get some type of energy crisis. Fortunately, Europe has seen a really mild winter and natural gas prices globally did not squeeze. How viable is it to run a nation on liquid natural gas is a whole other debate, but eventually, they’ll have to source actual natural gas again. Otherwise, German manufacturers might actually have to move to the US.
The Russian/Ukraine war is at a stalemate. People forget that Ukraine is well equipped, 1.5 times as big and two times the population of Iraq. It took the US 8 years to beat an initially very welcoming Iraq. On top of that, Ukraine has received international aid that’s twice the size of the Russian military budget so it kind of makes sense that they’re muddling through. We expect this war to be less prominent in the macro picture going forward.
Goldilocks and the three bulls
Yes things are too hot so the feds don’t have to fight inflation in the short term, but the recession is not as bad as everybody expected. This idea of a soft landing is sneaking back into headlines, but it is the worst case scenario. Past this next month or next couple of months, a soft landing ultimately means that earnings are outperforming. In addition with China coming back online, an acceleration UP will force the fed to come back into the fray to be more activist and raise interest rates, forcing the long end of the curve higher. For that, we foresee a steepening trade in the next 6months.
The Emperor has no clothes
The secular nature of inflation is alive and well (as we’ve discussed extensively previously) and will take a second leg higher again after a slow and small recession. That pause that the feds are making is going to make them behind the curve again. The positive trends driving inflation cyclicly lower (low oil and commodities prices, a weak dollar) will accelerate again to the upside as we move forward in months from now.
Outlook for February
- Cautiously optimistic until Feb 15
- Feb CPI on Feb14 could be a problem spot if markets runs up enough
- Be watchful for a potential pullback between Feb15-20
- If we make it past feb20, we do believe that we might stretch all the way to May in terms of generally bullish posture